What Are the Odds of Getting a Secret or Rare Figure in a Blind Box?

Quick Answer

Secret and rare figures in blind boxes typically have drop rates between 1 in 8 and 1 in 144, depending on the series. Always check the official product listing or packaging for the stated probability, and remember that each box is an independent random draw—buying more doesn't guarantee a secret.

Blind boxes are thrilling because of the mystery, but the real excitement—and anxiety—comes from chasing a secret or rare figure. Whether you're hoping for an Awakened Unit-01 from Evangelion or a hidden Hatsune Miku design, understanding the odds can help you decide how many boxes to buy and whether it's worth the cost.

In this FAQ, we'll answer common questions about secret figure probabilities, how manufacturers publish them, and what to do if you're hunting for a specific rare design.

How Are Secret Figure Odds Determined?

Manufacturers set the odds for each blind box series based on the number of regular and secret designs. For example, a series with 8 regular designs and 1 secret might list the secret's probability as 1 in 9, meaning each box has an equal chance of containing any of the 9 possible figures. Some series use a lower probability, like 1 in 12 or 1 in 24, to make the secret more exclusive.

These odds are usually printed on the product packaging or listed in the official product description. For instance, the Evangelion Blind Box Figure Funism EVA Completion Plan Vol.1 includes 8 regular designs and 1 secret, with a stated probability of 1/8 for regulars and 1/9 for the secret. Always look for this information before you buy—it's the most reliable way to gauge your chances.

• Check the product listing or box for the official probability statement.
• Remember that odds are per box, not cumulative—each box is an independent draw.
• If no probability is stated, assume the secret is rarer than 1 in 8.

What Are Typical Drop Rates for Secret Figures?

Drop rates vary widely by brand and series. Common rates include 1 in 6, 1 in 8, 1 in 12, 1 in 24, and even 1 in 144 for ultra-rare chases. For example, the BLUE LOCK Sitting Series Mini Figure Blind Box has 8 regular designs with no stated secret, so the odds of getting any specific regular are 1 in 8. Series with a secret design often list the secret's probability separately, like the Funism Evangelion series with its 1/9 secret rate.

Some brands, like POP MART, are known for publishing detailed probability tables on their official pages, while others may not disclose odds at all. If a series doesn't state its probabilities, you can estimate based on community reports, but treat those as unofficial and potentially inaccurate.

• Typical secret rates range from 1 in 8 to 1 in 24, with some ultra-rare chases at 1 in 144.
• Always prefer official probabilities over community guesses.
• If no odds are given, assume the secret is less than 1 in 8.

How Can I Improve My Chances of Getting a Secret?

The only guaranteed way to get a specific secret is to buy a full case or set, if the manufacturer offers that option. Some retailers sell full cases that include one of each design plus the secret, but this is not always the case. If you're buying individual boxes, your odds are fixed by the drop rate, and no strategy—like shaking or weighing—can reliably change that.

Another practical approach is to join collector communities or trading groups. Many collectors trade duplicates or sell secrets they've pulled, which can be more cost-effective than buying dozens of boxes. For example, if you're hunting a specific Hatsune Miku charm, you might trade with someone who has it.

• Consider buying a full case if it guarantees a complete set including the secret.
• Join trading groups to swap duplicates or buy secrets directly.
• Avoid spending more than you're comfortable with—chasing a secret can get expensive.

Are Secrets Worth More Money or Resale Value?

Secret figures often have higher resale value because they're rarer, but this isn't always the case. The value depends on the character's popularity, the series' demand, and the condition of the figure. For example, a secret from a popular series like Evangelion might sell for significantly more than its retail price, while a less popular series' secret might not.

However, treating blind boxes as an investment is risky. The market can fluctuate, and you might not recover your costs if you're buying many boxes to chase a secret. If you're collecting for enjoyment, the thrill of the pull is part of the fun—just don't overspend based on potential resale value.

• Secrets can have higher resale value, but it's not guaranteed.
• Check sold listings on resale platforms to gauge current demand.
• Collect for joy first; treat resale as a bonus, not a plan.

Key Takeaways for Secret Hunters

Check official odds

Look for probability statements on the product page or packaging before buying. If none are given, assume the secret is rare. Official odds are your best guide—use them to set expectations.

Budget for the chase

Decide how much you're willing to spend before you start. Remember that each box is independent, so buying more doesn't guarantee a secret. Set a limit and stick to it—don't overspend on hope.

Consider trading

Join collector groups to trade duplicates or buy secrets directly. This can be more cost-effective than buying dozens of boxes. Trading can get you the secret you want without breaking the bank.

Real Examples from OtakuPop

• Evangelion Blind Box Figure Funism EVA Completion Plan Vol.1: This series includes 8 regular designs and 1 secret, with a probability of 1/8 for regulars and 1/9 for the secret. Knowing the exact odds helps you decide if the chase is worth the cost—buying 9 boxes gives you a reasonable chance, but not a guarantee, of getting the secret.
• BLUE LOCK Sitting Series Mini Figure Blind Box: This series features 8 regular designs with no secret, so each box has a 1 in 8 chance of any specific character. Without a secret, the odds are straightforward, making it easier to budget if you're aiming to collect a specific player.
• Hatsune Miku WAYAYA Vol.1 Plush Charm Blind Box with Toothbrush & Rinse Cup: This series includes multiple designs, but the exact number and any secret odds are not stated in the product description. When probabilities aren't disclosed, you should assume the secret is rarer than 1 in 8 and decide if the uncertainty is acceptable for your budget.

Understanding blind box odds helps you make smarter purchasing decisions and enjoy the thrill without the disappointment. Always check official probabilities, set a budget, and remember that the secret is just one part of the fun—every figure adds to your collection.